The Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy Adjustments on Cross-Border E-commerce Logistics
At the beginning of 2025, frequent adjustments to U.S. tariff policies sent shockwaves through the global e-commerce logistics sector. The proposed cancellation of the $800 duty-free exemption for Chinese cross-border e-commerce shipments was expected to disrupt the industry significantly, impacting e-commerce platforms and reshaping the international air cargo market.
Last week, the U.S. government announced the cancellation of the $800 duty-free threshold for Chinese e-commerce parcels, prompting urgent responses from platforms heavily reliant on direct air shipping. Many companies swiftly reduced or suspended shipments to the U.S. However, within just three days, the decision was temporarily reversed, reinstating the T86 clearance model. This abrupt policy fluctuation alleviated the brief "freeze" in China-U.S. air cargo routes but underscored the vulnerabilities within the industry.
The Risks of Over-Reliance on a Single Logistics Model
This policy shift exposed the risks associated with the heavy reliance on a single logistics model—namely, full-service direct air shipping. While efficient, this approach proved highly susceptible to regulatory changes. Moving forward, e-commerce platforms must explore diversified logistics solutions to mitigate potential policy risks and enhance supply chain resilience.
Before the policy adjustment, daily cross-border e-commerce shipments from China to the U.S. ranged between 3 to 5 million parcels, with an estimated daily air cargo volume exceeding 5,000 tons. This translates to a demand for approximately 50 wide-body freighter flights per day. Given that a single long-haul freighter operates three flights per week, the China-U.S. route required around 100 wide-body freighters weekly to sustain operations.
Potential Disruptions in the Global Air Cargo Market
The U.S. market accounts for approximately 40% of China's total cross-border e-commerce exports. If the U.S. proceeds with eliminating the $800 duty-free threshold in the future, it could lead to short-term overcapacity in the international air cargo market. Excess cargo capacity may be redirected to Europe, the Middle East, and South America, potentially driving down global air freight rates.
Over the past three years, China's e-commerce platforms have heavily relied on full-service models to expand globally, driving massive demand for air cargo. This has led to extreme constraints on freighter capacity, keeping freight rates at elevated levels. The dominance of major e-commerce platforms in securing freight capacity and controlling pricing has contributed to an increasingly oligopolistic air cargo market, placing significant cost burdens on exporters and traditional trade businesses.
A Turning Point for Air Cargo Pricing and Market Structure
This policy turbulence could serve as a catalyst for the rationalization of air freight pricing. The model of major e-commerce clients monopolizing capacity and dictating pricing is unsustainable and fraught with risks. The future of the air cargo industry hinges on fostering a more diversified cargo source structure and customer base, ensuring a healthier and more resilient market ecosystem.
The recent U.S. tariff policy adjustments serve as a wake-up call for Chinese cross-border e-commerce players, urging them to rethink their logistics strategies. At the same time, the air cargo industry must embrace diversification, reducing its dependence on any single sector or customer base to enhance risk resilience.
Adapting to an Uncertain Trade Environment
Moreover, the unpredictability of trade policies highlights the need for industry stakeholders to closely monitor global trade dynamics and proactively develop contingency plans. Only by embracing diversified logistics strategies and sustainable growth models can businesses navigate the evolving global trade landscape and maintain a competitive edge.
The volatility of U.S. tariff policies underscores the broader uncertainties in global trade. For Chinese cross-border e-commerce and the international air cargo market, this development presents both challenges and opportunities. By optimizing logistics models and promoting market diversification, the industry can uncover new avenues for growth and achieve long-term sustainability.